levered returns and inflation
formula
\(r_\lambda\) = levered return
\(r_u\) = unlevered return
\(\lambda\) = leverage ratio
\(i\) = interest rate
\(\pi\) = inflation
\(r_\lambda = \lambda r_u - \frac{(\lambda - 1) i}{1 + \pi}\)
Some sanity checks:
set inflation = 0
\(r_\lambda = \lambda r_u - (\lambda - 1) i\)
or
\(r_\lambda = \lambda (r_u - i) + i\)
set leverage = 1
\(r_\lambda = r_u\)
some trials
| ru | π | i | λ | rλ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.10 | no leverage |
| 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.10 | 5% inflation |
| 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1 | 0.10 | 7% interest |
| 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 0.20 | 2x leverage |
| 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.67 | 0.67 | leverage reflecting 15% down |
| 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 6.67 | 0.27 | 7% interest and leverage |
| 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 6.67 | 0.30 | inflation = interest |
| 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 6.67 | 0.29 | inflation < interest |
| 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 6.67 | 0.40 | inflation > interest |
| 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 6.67 | -0.13 | inflation < high interest |
| 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 6.67 | 0.32 | high inflation > interest |
| 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 6.67 | -0.07 | high inflation = high interest |